Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013

by **Admin** Tue Sep 17, 2013 8:27 am

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Sep 17 2013

The Fed to maintain forward guidance with firm tone, says Hilsenrath

The Federal Reserve is struggling to justify extending forward guidance as part of its strategy to maintain the recovery path according to Fedwatcher Jon Hilsenrath in his latest article on the FOMC policy meeting. The FOMC is expected to publish its interest rate and monetary policy decision on Wednesday September 18 and market is widely expecting the Fed to start its cut in the bond buying program. The Fedwatcher affirmed in his piece that "Federal Reserve officials face a communication challenge explaining their interest-rate plans when they gather for a policy meeting this week."

Their challenge is "how to justify the low interest-rate plan when their own estimates suggest an economy regaining its health." According to Hilsenrath, Fed forecasts could show "rates rising but still low" by 2016. The Fed also expects economy at "full employment" by the same year. The decision on QE tapering the $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program is now a close call "on whether to start pulling back on the QE." The Fed is now changing its emphasis from bond buying to the "low-rate pledge."
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-09-17 08:30 GMT : UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jul)
2013-09-17 09:00 GMT : EMU ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Aug)
2013-09-17 12:30 GMT : US Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Aug)
2013-09-17 13:00 GMT : US Net Long-Term TIC Flows (Jul)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-09-17 05:29 GMT : NZD/USD downwards in tandem with “Aussie”
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/USD sails below EMA20 - extending trading range
2013-09-17 04:43 GMT : EUR/GBP still under the 0.84 handle ahead of German ZEW & UK CPI
2013-09-17 04:16 GMT : AUD/JPY pops up after RBA minutes

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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33422 LOW 1.33252 BID 1.33396 ASK 1.33398 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 56:12

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3361 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3384 (R2) and then 1.3405 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is placed at 1.3321 (S1). Possible penetration below it might initiate bearish pressure and gradually push the price towards to our intraday targets at 1.3298 (S2) and 1.3275 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3361, 1.3384, 1.3405
Support Levels: 1.3321, 1.3298, 1.3275

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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59151 LOW 1.58884 BID 1.59091 ASK 1.59098 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:13

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High

Upwards scenario: GBPUSD resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 1.5996 (R2) and 1.6030 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5964 (R1). Downwards scenario: Though, we still keep the bearish scenario in focus. Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.5888 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 1.5853 (S2) and 1.5818 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.5964, 1.5996, 1.6030
Support Levels: 1.5888, 1.5853, 1.5818

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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.358 LOW 99.009 BID 99.145 ASK 99.147 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 56:14

OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium

Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 99.36 (R1). Our interim target holds at 99.56 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 99.77 (R3). Downwards scenario: However if the price manages to break our key support level at 99.00 (S1) bearish market participants might take the initiative. Our intraday support level locates at 98.79 (S2) and 98.58 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.56, 99.77
Support Levels: 99.00, 98.79, 98.58

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )